Cape town: One of the principal arteries of world trade has been chronically blocked for almost six months. Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a bare minimum since the first US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February. Cargo ships have at times been fired on by Iranian forces; at others, threats from Tehran or Washington have been enough to bring shipping to a standstill.
According to Deutsche Welle, various rounds of talks, a joint memorandum, and third-party deliberations about the creation of a maritime mission have not succeeded in stabilizing the situation. It remains to be seen whether a deal between Iran and Oman on establishing a shipping route through the strait will do so. The ongoing conflict has caused fossil fuel prices to soar globally, leading to inflation. Despite Africa's proximity to the Gulf, some regions have experienced severe fuel shortages, exacerbated by bottlenecks, resulting in long lines at gas stations. The scarcity of fertilizers sourced from the Gulf threatens this year's harvests, giving African governments a strong incentive to engage diplomatically in finding a permanent solution.
"I believe their long-term plan is still based on the assumption that the crisis in the Middle East may continue for some time," said Liesl Louw-Vaudran from the International Crisis Group, an NGO that works to prevent conflicts. The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, but Louw-Vaudran, an expert adviser with the African Union, noted that there is no evidence of optimism or economic planning revisions following the MOU. She emphasized that everyone is waiting to see how the situation unfolds in the coming months.
African diplomacy has taken a cautious approach regarding Hormuz in recent months, focusing on negotiated solutions and diplomatic initiatives while emphasizing a rules-based order. African governments have shown solidarity with the Arab Gulf states, which are US allies under fire from Iran. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, and Liberia, current African members of the UN Security Council, supported a UN resolution in March condemning Iranian attacks on Gulf states.
Dismas Mokua, a political risk analyst with the Kenyan advisory firm Tricarta, commented on the reluctance of African governments to assign blame, particularly to the US president, who initiated the conflict alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Mokua highlighted that global leaders fear the consequences of calling out Donald Trump, noting that no leader has publicly criticized him.
Louw-Vaudran from the International Crisis Group suggested that a recent negative experience might deter the African Union from speaking with one voice. She recalled that the AU Commission faced backlash in 2022 when the previous chairperson criticized Russia during the Ukraine war. Consequently, the AU, with 55 member states, remains divided and hesitant to make political statements in rapidly changing geopolitical situations.
The crisis calls for governmental action beyond statements. Mokua emphasized the importance of reevaluating supply chains to succeed amidst global disruptions. He praised Kenya's success in maintaining constant and reliable oil and gas supplies despite increased costs. However, Ethiopia's experience contrasts sharply, as delivery bottlenecks have led the government to prioritize security agencies, public transport, and agriculture for fuel distribution, leaving private individuals at empty gas stations. Ethiopia's significant trade relationship with Iran is now at risk as it balances relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia.